Calculating
budget deficits and surpluses is very simple: revenues less expenses
equals deficit, or surplus (R-E=D
or S).
The federal debt is simply all the deficits and surpluses added up
over time plus government borrowing from government trust funds.
The problem with these calculations is accounting gimmicks used
to mask the true numbers. These tricks include borrowing from the
Social Security surpluses, supplemental appropriations, and shifting
accounting dates into future years. Also, the deficit and debt numbers are often reported as a percentage
of the GDP and this calculation distorts the real results making them
less shocking to the general public.
The result of these accounting gimmicks and bad comparison
calculations is confusion among the general public about who is
responsible for creating these deficits and the size of the debt
problem.
For example, this past federal fiscal year that ended
September 30, 2009 the deficit was reported as 12.9% of the GDP. I
did some research and found that the deficit was $1.4 trillion, and the total
federal debt increased by $2.1 trillion to a total of $11.7
trillion, of which foreigners own approximately $3.8 trillion.
Many people blame the Obama administration for these terrible
budget results, but let’s shine some light on the facts to see what
really happened and which administration is truly to blame.
Each new administration brings its own policies into office and
their policies do effect the economy as well as government
revenues and expenses, however, there is roughly a one year delay in
their policies effecting the current trend in budget direction from
the previous administration.
For example, when Obama took office on
January 20, 2009 it was already almost 4 months into the 2009 fiscal
accounting year, and by the time he got his cabinet officials
appointed and approved he was over 6 months into the federal fiscal
accounting year. This left them very little time to draft and pass
legislation that might effect the last few months of the fiscal year.
Historically, a new administration's legislative actions do not start to effect
the budget numbers (revenues and expenses) until the next accounting
year, which in Obama's case started October 1, 2009, and even then
the change in direction is gradual.
Therefore, a more accurate and honest way to look at the historic
deficit and debt numbers is to shift the results from the first year
of a new administration to the last year of the old administration.
Following is a summary of the deficit spending and total debt by
administration using my first year number shifting idea (Data
is from the Government Accountability Office (GAO) spreadsheets):
All Previous Administrations (204 years)
Total Federal Debt = $995 billion.
Reagan (8 years) Deficits = $1.5 trillion,
Debt Increase = $1.9 trillion.
Bush Sr. (4 years) Deficits = $1 trillion,
Debt Increase = $1.2 trillion.
Clinton (8 years) Surplus = $63
billion, Debt Increase = $1.1 trillion.
Bush Jr. (8 years) Deficits = $3.5
trillion, Debt Increase = $5.5 trillion.
Obama (0 years - Obama was inaugurated
January 20, 2009 therefore the first budget year we should
hold him accountable for is October 1, 2009 through
September 30, 2010.)
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* The difference between the deficits and the increases in the
total debt is mostly the money borrowed from the Social Security
surpluses and other government Trust Funds.
Based on my calculations the past three Republican administrations
have increased the total federal debt by $8.5 trillion and the
Democrats added $1.1 trillion during the Clinton administration.
President Reagan cut the top tax rate from 70% to 28% and reduced
the number of tax brackets from 16 to 2. These reductions in
revenues along with huge increases in military spending sent the
debt skyrocketing.
President Clinton raised the top tax rate to 36%
and increased the number of tax brackets to 5. These increases
in revenue along with PAYGO spending controls helped to move the
federal budget back into the black by the end of his term.
President
George W. Bush started a war in Iraq and passed huge tax cuts
reducing the top tax rate to 33%.
These tax cuts and war cost helped send the federal budget back deep
into the red.
As a result of Reagan's and George W. Bush's highly regressive tax
legislation the most
highly taxed people in our society today are people who are
self-employed earning around $90,000 per year.
Thanks to the past four administration's actions our government
now owes over $12 trillion ($12,000,000,000,000) to bondholders and
the interest cost of the federal debt has become a major budget
item.
Currently, government T-bills are earning an average of 3%,
which makes the interest cost on the federal debt around $360
billion per year. In fiscal year 2009 the government spent $383
billion on interest cost, which is over $1 billion per day.
However, if interest rates
were to increase to say 9% the interest cost on the debt would
increase to around $1 trillion per year, or more depending on how
much more debt is added between now and then. In 1981 the
average
T-bill rate went above 13%, and it could
happen again.
Interest cost on the federal debt does not build one school,
bridge, tank, or road. The American people get
nothing for those tax dollars, but the rich get a lot richer on an
investment that has almost zero risk.
The current $12 trillion in federal debt represents claims on the future
productivity of American workers. This means that some percentage of every dollar
earned by an American worker in the future must be used to pay interest on this
debt, and to retire maturing debt. Since foreigners own around 50%
of the federal debt held by the public much of that money is going
to other countries were their people are competing against American
workers. Therefore, in a way we are funding the destruction of our
own middle class with all this debt and the people who are getting
hurt the most are the ones who are paying the most to make it
happen.
What has President Obama and the Democratically controlled
Congress done to try and close the budget gap, or reduce the
regressivness of our tax system? NOTHING. In fact,
they have increased the gap with additional spending in an attempt
to get the economy growing, and by allowing the estate tax to go
from 45% this year (2009) to 0% next year (2010).
The failing
economy is not their fault, and trying to get it going with
additional spending is a good idea. However, by ignoring the revenue
side of the equation they are creating astronomically higher budget
deficits and debt, and by allowing the estate tax to expire they are
creating a much more regressive tax structure.
If these type of budget results continue, or if interest rates
increase significantly, our federal government could quickly become
insolvent forcing it to liquidate its vast assets
to the highest bidder.
The federal government's assets are
mostly land
holdings since it still owns around 20% of all
land in America valued at around $100 trillion. However, because of
the huge number of corrupt officials in our government this liquidation
would probably be done in such a way to only generate enough money to pay the interest on the
debt and not any of the debt itself. In other words, the liquidation
would just be another trillion dollar real estate scam that would
leave the American people scratching their heads wondering what the
hell happened.
I don’t believe that these huge deficits and debt are an
accident. They are deliberately designed to force our government to
sell off its vast assets – our collectively owned assets --
for pennies on the dollar to people who already own most of the
other assets in America. In other words, our elected leaders and
some of their mega wealthy campaign contributors have been
conspiring to rob our government of it vast real estate assets while
lying to us about what they are really doing.
The end result will be a further concentration of our country’s
wealth into the hands of fewer people and fewer people and a
continued shifting of the tax burden down to the people who can
least afford it. The rich get the gold and we get the shaft.
However, it’s not too late. We can still join together to stop
this theft of our country’s wealth. Visit fixco1.com for more
information about how we can take back our government from these
criminals.